Well i am not really surprised that there are so many flaws and suspicious things in their fundamental revenue model that one who has a little bit of financial knowledge like me can also rip them apart.  The most important thing is company has already announced on national TV that what they are charging is not against surveys but for the e-zine which is absolutely worth nothing.  Speakasiaonline’s CEO has said that they do not guarantee any x amount of earnings after paying sum of Rs 11k  against the ezine. Now this must have surely caused ripples for the people who have invested their hard earned money in the company just dreaming about getting easy money without doing anything (well doing surveys is as equal to do nothing).

I am also amazed how their management said sorry to the brands and confessed that they are not doing any surverys for them.

After doing some research about the company, i have got an explaination of how this whole sceheme works

1) They take 11k from you through list of channels called franchises, they do not include themselves directly in to this , the biggest question here is , they are an online .com based company and still they do not have online registration and subscription, they are getting millions of hits, they must have generated billions of Rs in few months with online subscription but they do not have that. Why? They are using third party survery tools for their surveys why? Well the answer lies in future. Lets see

2) After accepting money, they issue a receipt that this money is agains the yearly subscription of e-zine, they do not state any survery related payments or no. of surveys or anything else in the receipt which is again questionable cauz they are selling their schemes just cashing their survery model.

3) They pay you in USD, well they have to since till this time they do not have a single office in India which is highly questionable. I wonder why RBI have not raised his eyebrows when millions of Rs. is coming to india from overseas courtesy speakasiaonline.com .

4) People are getting paid only when there are surveys , what if surveys fade down? , what if there will no surveys? How do they generate revenues? and how do they pay the people doing surveys? this is very fishy indeed!

5) What if they shut down the entire survey system, lets take the worst case scenerio and see what you can do to get your money back. You can sue them! , well the truth is you have no evidence that they have duped you by survey scheme since they never in any written document tell you that you can make money while doing surveys.

6) So how are they operating? Well , the answer lies in the buffer period of 3 months when you get your investment back. So They are passing the bucks from new registrations to old one and also keeping some money in hand for expensive IPL ads.  They are just continuing to do so due to enormous amount of registrations , the bubble of the possible scam is getting bigger day by day

Well to all my friends who have invested in this scheme. I hope you atleast get paid back your investment money atleast if not profit. There are no free lunches in this world, and always remember money saved is money earned.

Best of Luck!

Some major events of the year in India

January 2009

The year 2009 started with a positive wave when Indian Government,?in tandem with RBI, announced the much-awaited Second Stimulus Package, aimed at reversing the?economic slowdown. Also, RBI slashed its main policy rates to protect faltering economic growth amid the global slowdown. Reverse Repo rate cut by 1% to 4.0% and CRR cut by 0.5% to 5.0%. The government eased the foreign borrowing rules for firms, mostly in the infrastructure and real estate sectors, and raised the foreign investment limit in corporate bonds to $15 billion.

On Jan,20, Mr. Barack Obama inaugurated as the 44th President of the U.S., lifting the sentiments that recovery will be faster.

The aftermath of Satyam Scam were dragged in the month of January and Indian key indices lost ~2.5 % on the back of a scam that raised questions over the corporate governance issues & financial credibility of the companies.

February 2009

India came up with December month IIP data (-2%) and Q4′09 GDP numbers (5.3%), which were far below the expectations. India saw a big jump in local car sales by 34% on Y-o-Y basis.

The global recessionary trends emerged large over the market sentiments with Sensex shedding 5.7% & Nifty losing 3.87% in February.

President Obama signed the $787 billion economic stimulus package into law, which included a variety of spending measures and tax cuts, intended to promote economic recovery. US also came with its decreasing fourth quarter GDP at an annual rate of 6.2 percent.

March 2009

Indian govt. again cut the Repo (from 5.5% to 5%) and Reverse Repo (4% to 3.5%) rate to increase the liquidity into the system. The global recessionary trends took a breather amidst a slew of Revival Packages from all major economies across the globe. So did the Indian markets and they ended the March month on a positive note gaining 9%.

April 2009

India Inc. reported its quarterly & yearly results, which were better than expected. The month saw strong FII inflows.

But on the later half of the month, Swine Flu declared, apart from it, US?s first quarter GDP also decreased at annual rate of 6.1 percent. Then, in US, the automobile manufacture Chrysler LLC filed for bankruptcy.

The March month?s positive vibes influenced the April month also and Indian markets gained 17% during the April month.

May 2009

The biggest news in May was the Return of UPA government to powerin the 15th Indian general election. The victory was followed by first ever double upper circuit on the markets in the history, with key indices gaining 28% in the month of May. The FII recorded a net inflow of Rs. 13,886 crs in the month. But in this monh, India also confirmed first cases of (A) H1N1 influenza.

June 2009

June came with some bad bunch of news around the world. In India, Indian weather department declared delay in monsoon and stock markets saw FII outflows. On the whole, the market closed on a negative note. In US, General Motors filed for bankruptcy, then the first quarter GDP decreased at annual rate of 5.5 percent.

July 2009

July month saw a good quarterly earning numbers and huge overseas inflows. GoI also announced the financial sector reforms and stake sale in PSUs in order to raise funds.

On the US front, the economic news was mixed but mostly positive. Despite a drop in consumer confidence, better than expected GDP numbers, boost in new home sales and home prices, and rise in the Chicago PMI report all pointed to stabilisation in the economy.

August 2009

The month of August saw a mixed action on the India front. Government drafted a new direct tax code on hopes of higher disposable income in hand of individuals. There were concerns about rainfall deficit & drought being declared across various villages of the country.

On the economic front, the India`s GDP grew to 6.1% in Q1 June 2009, that was lower than 7.8% achieved in Q1 June 2008 but it was better than the 5.8% expansion witnessed in Q4 2009.

There was a sharp surge in food prices in the August due to scanty rains that might stoke inflationary pressures in the economy. But the revival in the monsoon rains cheered the prospects for rice and sugar cane. The weak monsoon led cut in kharif crop production by 18%.

Further, the planning commission projected the GDP growth rate of 6.3% for the current fiscal year and a growth rate of 8% in the coming fiscal before the economy returns to 9% growth in 2011-12.

BSE also launched its IPO index, (which will track companies with a free-float market capitalization of at least 1 billion rupees on listing day.)

On the whole, the Indian markets closed on a flat note.

In US, second quarter GDP fell 1 %, unchanged from the advance estimate in July and following a 6.4% drop in Q1.

September 2009

The ringing of the festival season brought improvement in sales in consumer driven segments. Another positive was that India’s exports fell by annual 19.4 per cent in August Vs 28.4 per cent in July as demand for merchandise picked up in the big global markets ahead of Christmas.

Interest rate futures was reintroduced, which was a significant step towards developing the debt market in India.

October 2009

India recorded a positive set of IIP numbers to 10.4%, which were above the expectations.

The traditional pre-Christmas sell-offs by FIIs had advanced by a couple of months this year. India Inc also saw poor corporate results from some of the giants. The markets shed over 7%.

In US, the third quarter GDP increased at an annual rate of 3.5 percent. The Dow closed above 10,000 for the first time in a year.

November 2009

The IIP numbers, India’s industrial output, grew 9.1% in September from a year earlier, helped by fiscal stimulus and festival demand adding to the debate on the timing of exit policy.

Next in line was a slightly cautious number for that of the wholesale price based inflation data which would now be announced on monthly basis instead of every week. The wholesale price index was up 1.34% in October from a year earlier, compared with 0.5% in September and 11.06% a year ago.

Another interesting and a positive number was India’s strong GDP data that cheered the investor sentiment that the economic recovery is gaining momentum. India’s economy grew at a spectacular 7.9% in the July-September period, up from 6.1 % in the previous quarter, bolstered by government stimulus measures and rising industrial production. The growth compares favorably to 7.7 % recorded in the July-September quarter in the previous year.

NSE launched a platform for trading mutual fund units, called Mutual Fund Service System on?Nov. 30?for trading mutual fund units, with an aim to widen the reach of mutual fund schemes to smaller cities and towns and cut operational costs.

Internationally, crude oil made its 1 year high at $82 and CIT group filed for bankruptcy in US.

Overall, Indian markets gained 7% in this month.

December 2009

Gold made its life time high at $1,226, other commodities like sugar also made its high in the Indian markets at ~$8.5.

India witnessed the IIP numbers at 10.3%, which were below the expectations of 12%.

Till now, from Jan 2009 to till now, Indian key indices have seen an increase of 72% in its value.

The news of $80billion Dubai debt default came. The market expected it a second wave of recession.?After Dubai, S&P and Fitch downgraded Greece’s credit rating. Then, S&P revised?Spain’s outlook to negative.

I have a 15 years’ crude oil seasonal price chart. This chart says that from January to September, crude oil prices increase substantially, mainly because of the summer vacation-driving season. Then, in September- October, it becomes sluggish and then in the month of November- December, demand for crude oil weakens because of the reduction in driving and more moderate temperatures between the summer cooling and winter heating seasons, thus, crude prices see correction.

During the last 15-year period, January has typically been the month, in which, the seasonal oil price starts moving up again as markets prepare for the summer driving season. It is interesting to note that, while crude oil prices are usually soft during December, energy stocks begin to strengthen in December, offering the investors an opportunity to capitalize the favorable seasonal demand.

The OPEC meeting just concluded in Angola. We found two take aways from the event: first was that Asian demand is strong, mainly from China and second take away was that $70 is the new floor in oil prices. i.e. oil between $70-$80 is perfect for OPEC. So, this implies that, anyhow, OPEC will attempt to keep the oil above $70. At present, crude oil is trading at $75. So, may be ?a new uptrend has begun.

So, if 2010 also, follows the pattern of the past 15 years, then we are approaching the start of a seasonal climb in the crude oil prices that could present a good investment opportunity in energy-related stocks.

Currently, the crude oil is trading near US$ 75 per barrel. Going forward, according to this chart, crude should move further up. This would result in higher realizations to upstream companies like RIL, ONGC, Cairn India. But at the same time, higher crude prices would also impact the profitability of downstream companies like HPCL, BPCL (Oil Marketing Companies) as retail oil prices are Govt. driven and OMCs cannot pass on the higher cost to the end users. It would also lead under recoveries.

Natural Gas

Currently, the natural gas is trading at $5.7 per mmbtu, below its average rate of US$ 8 per mmbtu. In the economic recovery, it would be preferred as cheap energy alternative. But there is huge surplus inventory buildup in natural gas; so, we expect that the upside is limited to US$ 8-8.5 per mmbtu. Given the vast demand-supply gap in natural gas, gas transmission companies like GAIL India, Indraprastha Gas and Gujarat State could be highly benefited in 2010.

Rupee

Another factor that can impact oil and gas industry is ?movement in Rupee?. We expect rupee is strong in the near term, on account of higher economic activities, FII inflows to India and the recent comment from FM that GDP growth in FY10 could reach 7.75%. This would be a positive factor for oil marketing companies like IOC, BPCL, HPCL etc. as it will reduce the oil procurement costs, thus reducing subsidy losses and it would also be good for Gujarat Gas as its procurement is dollar denominated and the selling price is rupee-based.

Whereas, rupee appreciation could be negative for stand-alone refineries like Chennai Petroleum as their GRMs are dollar denominated and for upstream companies – ONGC and OIL as crude realisation is US$ denominated but some negative impact is mitigated due to lower subsidies.

Overall, I remain constructive on energy stocks?supply and demand fundamentals for energy will tighten, given the improving economy and positive seasonal factors, heading into the New Year. So, the energy stocks will benefit in 2010.

Meanwhile, the year 2009 saw a significant slowdown in India’s official GDP growth rate to 6.1% as well as the return of a large projected fiscal deficit of 10.3% of GDP, which would be among the highest in the world. India witnessed a weak monsoon this year, affecting the agriculture sector.

Some major events of the year in India

Jan 2: Indian Government in tandem with the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) announces the much-awaited second Stimulus Package aimed at reversing the economic slowdown.

May 18: Congress won the 15th Indian general election and Sensex gained 2,111 points from the previous close of 12173, a record one-day gain. In the opening trade itself the Sensex evinced a 15% gain over the previous close which led to a two-hour suspension in trading. After trading resumed, the Sensex surged again, leading to a full day suspension of trading.

May 19: Manmohan Singh re-elected as Prime Minister of India.

May 19: India confirms first cases of (A)H1N1 influenza.

Dec 1: Till November this year, FIIs have put in investments worth Rs.76,182 crore into the Indian stock markets. The top investor is USA which has got equity investments to the tune of Rs.21,345 crore, followed by Luxembourg, France, Mauritius, UK.

Around the world

January 20: Barack Obama inaugurated as the 44th President of the U.S.

February 3: S&P lowered California’s bond rating to A from A+.

February 17: President Obama signed the $787 billion economic stimulus package into law. The “American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009″ includes a variety of spending measures and tax cuts intended to promote economic recovery.

February 27: Fourth quarter GDP decreased at an annual rate of 6.2 percent.

March 2: Dow Jones Industrial Average drops below 7000 for the first time since 1997.

March 19: Moody’s lowered California’s bond rating from A1 to A2.
Fitch lowered California’s bond rating from A+ to A.

March 23: U.S. Treasury Secretary unveils the Public-Private Investment Program.

April 26: Swine Flu declared public health emergency.

April 29: First quarter GDP decreased at annual rate of 6.1 percent.

April 30: Chrysler files for bankruptcy.

June 1: General Motors files for bankruptcy.

June 10: Fiat completes acquisition of Chrysler assets.

June 25: First quarter GDP decreased at annual rate of 5.5 percent.

July 6: Fitch Ratings downgraded California?s long-term bond rating from A- to BBB. Moody’s lowered the State’s rating from A2 to Baa1.

July 24: Dow closes above 9000; first time since January. Federal minimum wage jumps from $6.55 an hour to $7.25 an hour.

July 28: Case-Shiller index shows first rise in U.S. housing prices in 3 years.

August 27: Second quarter GDP fell 1 percent, unchanged from the advance estimate in July and following a 6.4% drop in Q1.

October 14: Dow closes above 10,000 for the first time in a year.

October 29: Third quarter GDP increased at an annual rate of 3.5 percent.

The impact on Indian stock market was as follows…

January 2009

After a positive month of December, the month of January ended on a negative note with Satyam scam being the party spoiler. During the month, Sensex lost 2.31% & Nifty lost 2.84% on the back of a scam that raised questions over the corporate governance issues & financial credibility of the companies. Midcaps & Small caps were the major losers of the month losing 9.07% & 9.34% respectively.

February 2009

The markets continued its downward slide for the month of February taking cue from the Global markets with Dow jones touching its 2004 level lows. The global recessionary trends loomed large over the market sentiments with Sensex shedding 5.65% & Nifty losing 3.87% for the month. Midcaps & Small caps were again the underperformers for the month losing 6.23% & 6.98% respectively.

March 2009

The markets bounced back from the lows of February taking cue from the Global markets with most global markets ending the month in green. The global recessionary trends, which loomed large over the market sentiments over the previous few months took a breather amidst a slew of Revival Packages from all major economies across the globe. Sensex ended the month on a positive note gaining 9.19% & Nifty gained 9.31%. Midcaps & Small caps however underperformed the markets gaining just 7.18% & 4.53% respectively.

April 2009

The markets showed immense strength on the back of more than 9% growth in March ending on a positive note gaining as much as 17.46% on Sensex & 15% on Nifty during the April month. The rally was driven by strong FII inflows in the month of April coupled with quarterly & yearly results which were better than expected. Firm Global markets were amongst the other driving factors behind the huge rally which also saw Midcaps gaining 18.86% & Small caps gaining 21.38% both outperforming the benchmark indices.

May 2009

The Return of UPA government to power with a clear mandate by the people of India led the markets to a historical rally in the month of May. The victory was followed by first ever double upper circuit on the markets in the history. Sensex gained 28.26% & Nifty gained 28.07% in the month of May, continuing its three months rally. The rally was marked by strong FII inflows in the month of May with Net inflows of Rs. 13,886 crs. Midcaps were the flavor of the rally, gaining 43.91% & small cap gaining 51.92%, both outperforming the benchmark indices.

June 2009

Indian equities registered a fall with strong volatility during June 2009. The market commenced the month on a positive note helped by huge FII inflows and strong global cues. The rally in the market was continued till mid of the month. During that period, the BSE Sensex touched 10-month high of 15,467 on expectations that the government will increase public spending in the budget to spur economic growth. The markets then saw profit booking at higher levels. It witnessed continuous drop towards the end of the month on concern over delay in monsoon and FII outflows. However, recovery was seen in the final few sessions on the hope that the government will make policy announcements in the budget. On the whole, the market closed on a negative note.

July 2009

July 2009 turned out to be favorable for Indian stock markets. The Indian markets rallied on the back of good quarterly earnings, huge overseas inflows, positive global developments and announcements by the Government, regarding financial sector reforms and stake sale in PSUs in order to raise funds.

On the US front, the economic news was mixed but mostly positive. Despite a drop in consumer confidence, better than expected GDP numbers, boost in new home sales and home prices, and rise in the Chicago PMI report all pointed to stabilisation in the economy.

August 2009

The month of August saw a mixed action on the India front. Better-than-expected economic data and the draft new direct tax code on hopes of higher disposable income in hand of individuals triggered recovery in the markets. It was unable to sustain level towards the end of the month on weaker Chinese markets. On the whole, the market closed on a flat note amidst concerns about rainfall deficit & drought being declared across various villages of the country. So, the capital markets witnessed a lot of volatility taking cues from the global markets. On the economic front, the India`s Gross Domestic Production (GDP) grew to 6.1% in Q1 June 2009, that was lower than 7.8% achieved in Q1 June 2008 but it was better than the 5.8% expansion witnessed in Q4 2009. There was a sharp surge in food prices in the August due to scanty rains that might stoke inflationary pressures in the economy. But the revival in the monsoon rains cheered the prospects for rice and sugar cane. Further, the planning commission projected the GDP growth rate of 6.3% for the current fiscal year and a growth rate of 8% in the coming fiscal before the economy returns to 9% growth in 2011-12.

September 2009

The month of September ended with BSE’S bellwether index, Sensex, breaching the 17000 mark buoyed by the powerful tide of liquidity. The main drivers were the improved data across global economies & festival season ringing in improved sales in consumer driven segments. Another positive was that India’s exports fell by annual 19.4 per cent in August Vs 28.4 per cent in July as demand for merchandise picked up in the big global markets ahead of Christmas.

October 2009

Between Diwali of 2008 and the one just gone by, Indian stocks moved only in an upward direction with BSE Sensex posting a 74% growth. However, the week after Diwali, saw a stunning turnaround. The month of October saw the Sensex shed over 7%, the worst one-month fall in the year. Poor corporate results by some of the industry giants could be blamed for the fall in the market. The FIIs also played their part with foreign funds being infused to the tune of $14.4 billion (over Rs 67,000 crore) in Indian equities till October this year. But, under intense pressure to realise profits, the traditional pre-Christmas sell-offs by FIIs has advanced by a couple of months this year with ruinous effect on stock prices.

November 2009

The Markets bounced back from the lows of October and ended the month of November on a positive note, amidst heavy buying by both the FIIs and DIIs. Sensex ended Positive gaining 6.48% and Nifty gaining 6.81. November was a month with a mixed bag of news. The IIP numbers, India’s industrial output, grew 9.1 percent in September from a year earlier, helped by fiscal stimulus and festival demand adding to the debate on the timing of exit policy. Next in line was a slightly cautious number for that of the wholesale price based inflation data which would now be announced on monthly basis instead of every week. The wholesale price index was up 1.34% in October from a year earlier, compared with 0.5% in September and 11.06% a year ago. Another interesting and a positive number was India’s strong GDP data that cheered the investor sentiment that the economic recovery is gaining momentum. India’s economy grew at a spectacular 7.9% in the July-September period, the fastest pace in six quarters, bolstered by government stimulus measures and rising industrial production.

According to the latest data, food inflation rose to 17.47 % for the week ended November 21, 2009 against 15.58 % in the previous week owing to spiraling prices of vegetables, pulses and sugar. If we talk about overall WPI inflation, it doubled to 1.34 % in October as compared to 0.50 % in the previous month. On year on year basis, food prices jumped by 13.32% in October only. Rice, pulses, sugar and potatoes, onions were up by 13.22%, 22.81%, 45.70%, 96.43% and 37.60% respectively.

Reasons for inflation and its impact on economy:

• Bleak monsoon coupled with worst drought in nearly four decades in the country situation is haunting the entire economy. According to an estimate, India may see a drop of 18% in Kharif crop. It will create further demand and supply mismatch. People will spend less, if prices will move in the same way and ultimately it will affect most of the sector of economy.
• To encourage farmers to produce more, government has recently increased the MSP (Minimum support Price) of rice, oilseeds, cotton, sugar and many more. Higher MSP immediately pushed the prices up. Though the long term impact of this step will be positive, as more farmers will produce more to get good remuneration.
• Hoarding by stockist, farmers in anticipation of further hike in prices is also creating a demand supply mismatch, resulting in higher food inflation.
• Government has to compete high with the large scale entry of private players, which procure grains aggressively for biscuits, millers and manufacturers of processed foods.
• Declining trend of public investment in agriculture is another concern for government at present.

Measures to check inflation:

• To give immediate relief from inflationary pressure, government is planning to check the supply deficiency. It has allowed importing sugar. It will import rice, as rice production is expected to drop in 2010. Import duties on oil seeds have been slashed.
• Money supply should be checked, otherwise in the time of scarcity excess liquidity will accelerate inflation further.
• Distribution process should be very fast and transparent. Currently we need a well managed and coordinated distribution of stocks through PDS (Public Distribution System), open market sales of public stocks etc. Hoarding should be avoided here and government should keep an eye on this.
• This rising inflation has become a major threat for economy. The only key way to check the inflation is to bridge the gap between demand and supply, which may control the price rise.
• Unfortunately, Indian agriculture is characterized by low input and low output systems. Hence we have to increase the productivity. For example: Yield of paddy in India is only 2.9 tonnes/hectare as compared to 7.5 tonnes/hectare in US.
• Check the rising cost of cultivation. Increasing land, labour, fertilizers and other inputs are discouraging farmers to produce more in absence of sufficient liquidity.
• Apart from grain, government should also create buffer stocks or strategic reserve of oil seeds and other crop, so that it can release it at the time of crisis.

Apart from reasons and measures to check inflation, other concern in Indian economy is the parameters to check inflation. It is well known that India is the only country which considered WPI (Wholesale Price Index) while rest of the countries measured CPI (Consumer Price Index). WPI consists of 435 goods over 1993-94, as base year in which the weightage of food items is only 16%, which has large weightage of consumer spending in India. Though WPI in India is still in single digit, if we consider CPI it is already in double digit due to dearer farm articles and their higher weightage in measures. In CPI, food articles have 50% weightage. Hence there is a wide gap between the weightage of food articles of WPI and CPI, which are unable to give the clear pictures. Furthermore, 2/3rd of the price quotations used to calculate the WPI are sourced from only four metros. Hence to get the real picture, area should be widened.

In the above chart, it is a comparison between food?inflation and WPI from January, 2008 to October, 2009. Line chart is representing WPI monthly inflation whereas bar chart is indicating food article inflation. It appears that food article inflation is on continuous rise while WPI monthly inflation saw both side movements. It has started its northward journey in the month of March-April and it is still continued. Arrival of kharif crop is less likely to cool it as we are expecting 18% decline in kharif crop. Hence downside will be limited, rather it may move in a range with upside bias.

The words of future

RBI (Reserve Bank of India) has revised its outlook for inflation and expecting that it should be between the range of 5% to 6-6.5% for the year ending March 2010. There is a fear in the economy that the real impact of almost 18% drop in kharif rice production is to reflect in inflation. It would occur when kharif produce; rice, pulses, oilseeds and cereals would start coming in the market. With witnessing favourable weather conditions, economy is expecting strong rabi produce, which may cool off inflation of food articles to some extent, however, we cannot rule out the possibility adverse weather. Ultimately what matters is final produce and yield. Government has to take care of everything like, demand ?supply equilibrium, money supply, distribution etc, otherwise it will become nightmare for aam admi and hamper the economic growth.

In a few days, India will have a new Prime Minister. It’s as good a time as any to take stock of the men — and one woman — who have served us. Who’s been the best PM India’s had, and who’s done the most damage?

Before I begin my analysis, I’d like to emphasise that these are purely my views, and do not reflect the opinion of The Times of India as an organization in any way. I’ve tried to be neutral and objective, and mentioned both the faults and positives of all the PMs. But I’m sure many people will vehemently disagree with my opinion, which of course is their democratic right. So, let the debate begin!

Jawaharlal Nehru: India suffered heavily because of his misplaced sense of idealism over Kashmir, resulting in a problem that troubles us to this day, and his naivete over China. But the fact is that much that is good about India today, including world-class institutes of higher learning, our space programme and the widespread use of English that gives India a competitive advantage in a globalised world, are the result of his vision. Unlike many other colonised countries that got freedom at the same time as India and promptly become tinpot dictatorships, India is still a vibrant democracy – and that is surely Nehru’s biggest achievement. It has been rightly observed that if Nehru had been a different kind of man, India would have been a different kind of country. For helping make it a rare success story in South Asia, I think he deserves the title of our best PM ever.

 
Indira Gandhi: A poll conducted by a leading Indian magazine some years ago rated her as India’s all-time best Prime Minister. I’m afraid I don’t share that opinion. The Emergency was arguably the worst assault ever on Indian democracy. Much of the ills that plague our politics, including corruption, criminalisation and the degradation of institutions like the Presidency, first flourished in her tenure. She effectively killed inner-party democracy in the Congress, and set the stage for the kind of cliques that are today the bane of Indian political parties. And she encouraged cynical misuse of religion — the rise of Bhindranwale was originally encouraged by the Congress in a bid to embarrass the Akali Dal.On the positive side, though, she did lead India to one of its finest hours — victory in the 1971 war. She was also in charge when India conducted the Pokhran tests. And she held India together during a deeply turbulent time.

 
Rajiv Gandhi: The 1984 Sikh riots and the Bofors scam will always remain blots on his record. So will his clumsy efforts to woo Muslim fundamentalists through the Shah Bano case while courting the Hindu right wing through his decision to open the locked Ayodhya gates. But he has been proved right on many things, which were scoffed at during his lifetime, including his belief in computers and economic liberalisation. Rajiv was the first to talk of taking India into the 21st century, and he did a fair bit to help us get there. His contribution in triggering the country’s IT and communications revolution has not got the credit it deserved. Nor have his other worthy initiatives, like panchayati raj. His tragically early death left many wondering what might have been.

 
Narasimha Rao: Slumbered through the demolition of the Babri mosque and was plagued with charges of graft and buying support in Parliament. But played an important role as the godfather of India’s much-needed economic reforms. Had the sense to induct Manmohan Singh as finance minister and back him to a large extent. Is also significant as the first non-Gandhi to complete a five-year term.

 
A B Vajpayee: The first non-Congress PM to complete at least one full tenure, which marked an important landmark in Indian politics. His failure to do anything as Gujarat burned is a negative mark against him. Also, even though the BJP flaunts its anti-terror credentials, the fact remains that Vajpayee presided over one of the most humiliating moments in Indian history: the escorting of three terrorists to Kandahar by Jaswant Singh in exchange for hostages.But Vajpayee’s tenure also saw India turn an initial setback into a proud victory at Kargil. He finally took India openly nuclear. And despite gloomy predictions to the contrary, the economy didn’t collapse under the weight of the sanctions that followed. Ultimately, the US came around to India’s N-programme and the economy boomed during Vajpayee’s last years. The irony is, the BJP’s proud claim of India Shining boomeranged on it in the 2004 elections.

 
Manmohan Singh: His critics deride him as India’s weakest PM ever. But the way he pushed through the N-deal with the US in the face of overwhelming political opposition would seem to belie that charge. The economy didn’t do as spectacularly under him as his past record as finance minister had led one to hope. But it stayed on an even keel till it hit the speedbreaker of the global recession. His biggest failure, perhaps, was that his government seemed to be a mute spectator as India reeled under a string of terror serial blasts, and it finally took a 26/11 to shake it out of its stupor.

As you might have noticed, I’ve only looked at the PMs who completed at least one, or more, full terms in office. The others hardly did anything of significance, though Chandrashekhar’s decision to mortgage India’s gold was a much-needed wake-up call that we could no longer continue with our misguided economic policies. However, there was one man among this bunch who, I believe, did the most damage to India.

 
V P Singh wrecked efforts made over decades to turn caste into an irrelevant relic of medieval times, and brought it to the front and centre of Indian politics. Call me naive, but I made it all the way to college without ever knowing — or caring — what my caste was. It was enough for me to be an Indian. I’d like to believe it was the same way for many other young Indians. Idealistically, we believed that caste was an evil that had been made redundant in major Indian cities, and would one day be banished from small towns and villages too. VP’s cynical use of the Mandal Report to try and counter the rise of the BJP shattered that hope forever. Worse, it led to the rise of many small parties based on identity politics, which have no vision for India beyond their narrow vested interests. Today, sub-castes actually agitate to be declared backward. India has, thankfully, managed to avoid full-blown caste conflict but that’s no thanks to VP. Rarely could a person who spent so little time in office have done so much damage to a country.

 
P.S: Before I’m accused of being casteist, I’d like to clarify my stand. I believe that one of the foremost duties of government — Centre and states alike — is to ensure affordable (if not free), high-quality education to all citizens, regardless of caste or community. Thereafter, there should be free and fair competition for jobs, based on equality of opportunity. Having failed to achieve this basic goal, politicians have resorted to lazy, and ultimately deeply divisive tactics like reservations. It’s a shame we haven’t managed to see through their ploys.

Automobiles

During the fourth quarter, the automobile sector is expected to do well on the back of strong sequential volume gains as compared to the sluggish previous quarter, particularly in the passenger car and two-wheeler segments. Generally, in the fourth quarter, sales pick up because of the year-end demand and attractive discounts being offered by the automakers to clear the stock. In addition to this, the sales volumes were mainly driven by the positive impact of the implementation of the sixth pay commission and robust agricultural income. Moreover, major public sector banks also contributed to the growth by easing finance availability and lending at lower rates. The announcement of various stimulus packages by the government also provided some remedy for the automobile sector especially the commercial vehicle segment that has been hit hard by the slowing demand. Margins are also expected to go up because of the softening prices of key raw materials like steel, aluminum and rubber. Hero Honda and Maruti Suzuki will do good as these two giants have been least impacted by the slowdown and have gained as consumers shifted to value-for-money, tried and tested products in difficult times. Tata Motors is likely to remain on the edge due to continued shrinkage in the commercial vehicle market.

Banking

Banking sector is likely to remain subdued as there was fall in advances and deposits on the back of people shifting from savings and current account to FDs, which increased the cost of funds for the companies. Thus banking sector will face contraction in net interest margin. Moreover, during the quarter, margins were hit by increase in NPA also. As the prices of the government securities are indirectly proportional to yields, banks are expected to suffer losses on the available for sale portion of their g-sec portfolios. The g-sec gains were one of the most important reasons for the good performance of banks in Q308. The numbers would therefore be even worse on a quarter-on-quarter basis.

Capital Goods

Capital goods sector is on the road to recovery. The margins are expected to improve on account of decrease in raw material prices of steel, copper, aluminum etc. Moreover, the capital good majors has a strong order book of 2-5 times of their sales as government infrastructure activities are still going on even in recession.

Cement

On the back of strong dispatch growth and better price realizations, cement sector is expected to release good results in Q4’09. Companies like Ultratech Cements and Ambuja Cements are expected to benefit from softening of the coal prices in the international market as these companies import one third of their coal requirements. Due to the sluggish prices in the central and eastern markets, ACC is expected to book some loss. Grasim, again, is expected to report slow performance because of the difficult operating environment in its fibre and pulp business.

FMCG

FMCG sector is likely to pull off a healthy performance in the coming quarter. Along with the growth in volumes, value growth will be the primary driver of revenues. The easing raw material prices have reduced the pressure on margins. FMCG companies enjoy a strong pricing power, which is evident from the fact that in case of rising input costs, companies either increase the product prices or reduce the pack sizes to sell their products. But currently, when the raw materials are easing out, the companies do not reduce the product prices till the time they witness any slowdown in demand. Sector saw strong demand coming from rural market due to gains from sharp increase in crop prices, farm loan waiver and also higher spends on national rural employment guarantee schemes.

Information Technology

We expect IT companies to report decline in revenues on account of drop in volumes, declining realizations, several project cancellations, delays in order intake and adverse cross currency fluctuations. However, the weaker rupee will support the top line when expressed in rupees.

Media

In broadcasting and print businesses, revenues are mainly driven by the two segments- advertisement and subscription. The revenues of the advertisement segment is likely to be hit badly because of the corporate earnings slowdown as companies are spending less on advertising due to the economic slowdown.

Metals

There was a slight revival in demand because of the factors like better seasonal demand, destocking at the user end, lesser imports and pre-election activities. The demand from steel consumers is usually high during year-end time as companies attempt to complete maximum portion of their projects. The non-ferrous metal producers are likely to be hit badly due to a sharp y-o-y decline in base metal prices. Though the rupee depreciation would offset the loss to some extent, the overall impact on topline would be negative.

Oil and Gas

The Oil and Gas sector is likely to report better numbers because of the stable oil prices and improving margins. Therefore, the refining business will not experience any inventory losses. RMCs would be reporting significant profits due to issuance of oil bonds. BPCL is likely to post healthy profits as compared to the last Qtr. Reliance Industries had a planned refinery shutdown in January, which will bring down the company’s top line and bottom line, although its margins may be better. ONGC results will be impacted because of the decline in production and lower crude oil prices. Even if we assume no subsidy burden during the quarter, the high cost structure and annual extraordinary write-offs are likely to bring down the net profits for ONGC. GAIL is expected to throw good numbers on the back of its growth in natural gas transmission segment.

Pharmaceuticals

As Pharmaceutical sector is supposed to be a recession proof sector, this sector is expected to report a modest performance in this quarter. The rupee’s depreciation to the level of Rs. 52 is positive for the export-oriented sector but companies did not see any major demand on export front so the key driver for the growth will be the domestic formulations business. Most of the companies faced delays in obtaining approvals on ANDAs filing from USFDA because of the increased stringent compliance. Sun Pharma is expected to report lower PAT in this quarter, because of the fact that it enjoyed drug exclusivity in the last quarter of FY08. Though Cipla’s export volumes have declined but still the company can post a positive earning figure.

Power

Power sector is supposed to post a decent growth because of higher plant load factor, lower fuel cost, higher tariffs due to increased fuel cost and higher other income. The outlook for the sector remains robust in the light of easing of finances, which would lead to faster financial closure for upcoming projects. Moreover, the fuel cost is expected to remain on the lower side because the coal prices have come down internationally.

Real Estate

The real estate sector is expected to take a beating like never before during the March’ 09 quarter. Sales will continue to remain subdued till the sentiment turns positive. Sales are expected to be down by more than a half of what they were in the March ‘08 quarter. Real estate companies are facing slow sales because of the unsold inventory, absence of new launches, and increasing interest costs. Some companies entered into affordable housing vertical also, which ultimately would bring low margins, high interest coat and depreciation.

Telecom

The telecom sector has seen robust subscriber additions during March ‘09 quarter. While top line story is likely to remain good but margins can be impacted because of the entry of operators and upfront costs. In the first two months of the March ‘09 quarter, telecom giants like Rcom, Idea and Tata Tele reported substantial acceleration in subscriber additions. Bharti, as a most consistent player in the industry, is likely to report a good growth in top line and bottom line. Idea Cellular is likely to register fastest growth among the listed telecom companies and Tata Communications will see an increased other income as it sold 1% stake in one of its subsidiaries.

Fuels and metals prices being far lower than last year, along with low demand in the economy gave this higher base year effect. Now, there are talks of Deflation. Market men are expecting the inflation will head towards zero level in 3-4 weeks and soon in negative territory for 4 to 5 months, which will open the way for the Reserve Bank of India to cut interest rates further to grow up demand and economic growth.

First of all, we need to know what exactly deflation is. In Inflation, money becomes relatively less valuable than goods. And deflation being the exact opposite of inflation, money becomes more valuable than the other goods in the economy. And when does deflation occur? It usually occurs when supply of goods is more than supply of money. So demand for money goes up and demand for goods goes down. Does this mean that we are now talking of a fall in inflation caused by falling demand? Well, if we see the IIP numbers of Dec/Jan, especially the falling growth rate of the manufacturing sector, it conveys the same. So, in the coming few months, market is expecting negative Inflation.

With inflation at its historic low, the consensus in the market are like in terms of policy response, RBI will ease the liquidity by cutting both the REPO and reverse REPO rates by 100 basis points by mid-2009. But RBI has already taken so many measures in the past few months, now the onus is on the banks. Rather than concentrating on what the central bank is doing, we have to really see is what the cost of funds is for the banks, and that requires lower deposit rates. The banks have reduced the interest rates on bulk deposits, which is at an average of 10% while it has not really reduced the lending rates, which continues to remain at an average of 12%, which is the PLR. Banks have become risk averse to the extent of being over cautious. Unless the banks are not able to redeem the high interest cost deposits, the rates are not expected to come down. One could see rates coming down in the slack season between April-September 2009. Once RBI reduces the rates, then deposit rates could come down further and it is only after that, that the banks will reduce lending rates. Then only we can see some industrial demand.

We cannot say that we will actually see Deflation very soon, because to some extent, the current condition is just an eyewash. The gap between WPI and CPI is further widening. WPI Inflation as measured by RBI is 0.44 %, but the Retail inflation as measured by the consumer price index has moved up to 10.45% in January, the highest since December 1998.

Now the question arises, why prices at the retail level are not coming down – in spite of the WPI based inflation coming to 0.44 %.

Well, when inflation goes down, the process starts from the supplier of raw materials like in case of housing industry, the process starts from the iron-ore–>Steel industry –>Trader–>Construction industry –> Home owner. So just imagine the effective time which inflation takes to reach to the ultimate real consumer. The iron ore just mined out may take around 1-2 years to reach our home, which is under construction. By that time, inflation goes up again, the trader, who purchased steel cheap, raises his prices to match the current prices and the steel becomes costly again so we don’t find the difference in our daily-lives.

So, the recessionary trends will not go away and demand will not pick up until things change at the retail level because ultimate buyer of everything is common man only. In addition to this, sentiments should improve.

The asset price bubble, which was basically built from the abnormal increase in the prices of real estate, heavy FII money in the equity markets etc. in the past, had made India as a “high cost economy”. So, the deflation at -5 to -10 % is required to restore competitiveness of the Indian economy. This rolls the current price levels to few years back and restores sanity in the market place.

But if deflation sustains for longer period of time, it will result in less demand, lower production and weak economic growth.

So, in this scenario, investors should invest in those companies where decline in prices lead to increase demand for their products, prompting them to produce more value-added products with greater economies of scale. Companies, operating in sectors like snacks and beverages, health care, utilities and telecommunications can be a good buy. Apart from this, companies with strong balance sheets, which do not have much debt on their books, can also be considered for investment like IT, health care and energy sectors.

Though negative inflation is not good from a growth point of view but India’s low inflation rate for 5-6 months will not be a cause of worry as it will enable policy makers to take more steps to stimulate a slowing economy and if some more monetary easing is done, economy can see some revival in demand due to decrease in lending rates.

To change and to change for the better are two different things. We are constantly changing, be it a small change, such as the difference in our exact mindset, or profound, such as a move from one location to another, but in doing so, we are not always progressing. A poor man may become rich; through misfortune he may become poor again. His circumstances have changed twice, but he has seen no progress.

Progress simply means, “to advance towards a higher or better stage”, or say “ Progress is a change that benefits us” but a Change may take a positive step forward or may turn into a devastating step. There are aspects of human creativity that do not foster progress, though they may inaugurate change–permanent or temporary…like politics, arts and religion. A political system, for instance, may change from an absolute monarchy to a democracy; but it can also change back again. Similarly, it’s very possible for a progress to occur that, on a personal-level benefits us, but does not benefit the society as a whole. Or sometimes we do not agree with a policy, but it helps society as a whole. Progress is not the greed of one, which allows uncontrolled growth that destroys all the qualities of one’s life. Progress is about maintaining our values and ethics while recognizing that some change is inevitable, and that change can even be an improvement. Little steps can lead us to the path of progress like developing new skills and making perfect the existing ones, meeting like-minded activists or sharing experiences, inspiration and enthusiasm for taking action on the issues we really care about.

But what separates change from progress? Well, we can’t avoid change, it’s mandatory, and progress, however, is optional. Change is inevitable, but what often is overlooked is the fact that neither the passage of time nor change occurring guarantees progress. The challenge is to work towards making inevitable change a positive step — whether it’s in our business or our personal life.

The true factor in progress is character. Character is one’s ethical strength, the ability to judge things unbiased, the capacity to break beyond the bounds of common thought and excel to the best decision overall. When the opportunity to change comes about, it’s up to the individual to take a grasp on that change, and rather than idly sit and allow it to alter him or her.

Change requires nothing, it happens on its own. Progress requires character…therefore, to maintain Progress and advance the pace of positive Change; all of us who strive to improve the lives of people and the nation, must bring to bear the maximum measure of our creativity, skills, resources, and dedication for the mutual benefit…benefit by reacting to change in a positive way.

Why has this happened? It’s something akin to cry wolf. Anil Ambani seems to have panache for making “big” news and keeps on hitting the headlines with his various plans. If one may recollect, he had earlier announced grandiose plans for getting into the cement sector. He is setting up a 20 million tpa cement unit in Madhya Pradesh for which 1,306 acres of land has been allotted. Why cement? It was explained to us that it was the most logical thing and was an extension of its proposed thermal power project in the state – it will be using the fly ash generated by the thermal power plant for the cement unit. He also announced setting up the Ambani Institute of Information and Communication Technology in capital Bhopal. All this at a price tag of Rs.50,000 crore. Cement at a time when the industry itself is expected to face a glut by 2010? And Rs.50,000 crore?

Then there was also the Rs.2,000 crore foray into shipping, starting with six ships and will operate between Indonesia and Krishnapatnam (in Andhra Pradesh), carrying coal from Indonesia. In the midst of the global financial crisis in September, he announced his plans to enter the banking sector when the industry opens up and infuse Rs.2,000 crore in its two insurance arms, besides venturing into asset reconstruction, institutional broking and private equity. He also announced a Rs.40,000 crore investment in steel in Jharkhand. All this apart, his plans for his entertianment division also remain equally big. In early October 08’, he met Steven Spielberg to seal their US$1.5 billion deal to make 35 films over the next 5 years. Well, the list goes on and on….

Sky is the limit for ambition and yes, its good to have such ambitious industrialists, who want to do everything and anything. But such ambitions should be realistic too. Today, because he carries the “Ambani” tag behind his name, people at least listen and publish his ambitions but if the same had come from anyone else, it would have been ignored as just wishful meanderings.

More importantly, people do not take these ambitions of Anil Ambani seriously as he has yet to clear his past trackrecord which has not exactly been trailbalzing. The pain inflicted by Reliance Power is still too raw and people are yet to forget, forgiveness is too far away. Then there was the proposed and withdrawn IPO of Reliance Infra. When the report card has so many red markings, who will believe when the child says that he will become a nuclear scientist?

For people to now take him and his plans seriously, Anil Ambani will have to first show some performance. Maybe, once he gets his UMPPs going or even if the stock price of Reliance Power manages to wash away the pain, then probably such utterings and investments of his would evoke a positive response. For now, people just eye his ambitions warily and choose to ignore it.